Viewing archive of Saturday, 9 April 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Apr 09 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 099 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Apr 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 751 (S07W74)
produced several B-class flares during the period. This region has
grown in both sunspot count and white light area coverage and is now
a Dai beta spot group. The SOHO/LASCO imagery observed two CME's
today off the SW limb. The first was around 09/0826 UTC and the
second was at 09/1350 UTC. Both appear to be from a backside event.
No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled. The greater than
2 MeV flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet to unsettled for 10-12 April.
Periods of active conditions are possible on 11-12 April due to a
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Apr to 12 Apr
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Apr 088 Predicted 10 Apr-12 Apr 085/085/085 90 Day Mean 09 Apr 096
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Apr 002/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Apr 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Apr-12 Apr 008/010-010/015-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Apr to 12 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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