Viewing archive of Friday, 15 April 2005

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Apr 15 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 105 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Apr 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

Solar activity was at very low levels. All of the regions on the disk were quiescent over the period. The GOES x-ray flux at geosynchronous orbit remained below the B-level for the entire interval. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominantly at quiet to unsettled levels. A brief active period occurred in the middle and high latitudes between 15/0300 and 0600Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Apr to 18 Apr
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 Apr 085
  Predicted   16 Apr-18 Apr  085/085/085
  90 Day Mean        15 Apr 094
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 14 Apr  014/019
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 Apr  008/011
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 16 Apr-18 Apr  005/008-005/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Apr to 18 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm05%05%01%
Major-severe storm02%02%02%

All times in UTC

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