Viewing archive of Saturday, 23 April 2005

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Apr 23 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 113 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Apr 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

Solar activity continues at very low levels. There are just a couple of very small and simple sunspot groups on the visible disk. Occasional bright surges were observed on the southeast limb late in the period. The associated active region is expected to rotate into view on 24 April. No other activity of note was observed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. A new region rotating on the east limb near S05 may slightly elevate activity levels over the next three days.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with isolated active conditions late in the period. A coronal hole high speed stream has rotated into a geoeffective position. Solar wind speed gradually increased to near 600 km/s. The IMF Bz was generally northward, but occasional brief southward excursions occurred late in the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods on 24 and 25 April. Predominantly quiet levels with isolated unsettled periods are expected on 26 April as the high speed stream rotates out of a geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 24 Apr to 26 Apr
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       23 Apr 079
  Predicted   24 Apr-26 Apr  080/085/085
  90 Day Mean        23 Apr 090
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 22 Apr  007/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 23 Apr  008/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 24 Apr-26 Apr  010/020-008/010-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Apr to 26 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%25%15%
Minor storm15%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%35%20%
Minor storm20%15%05%
Major-severe storm10%05%01%

All times in UTC

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