Viewing archive of Sunday, 1 May 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 May 01 2200 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 121 Issued at 2200Z on 01 May 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity was low. A C1.9 flare occurred at
01/1638 UTC from a region on the east limb at approximately S12.
Region 756 (S06W11) has decayed slightly in area. No new regions
were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a chance for an isolated M-class flare from Region
756.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels with an
isolated major storm period between 01/0300 and 01/0600 UTC. Solar
wind at ACE remained between approximately 600 km/s and 700 km/s.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with an isolated minor storm
period possible on 02 May. On 03 - 04 May, conditions are expected
to decrease to quiet to unsettled as the coronal hole high speed
stream moves out of geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 02 May to 04 May
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 May 112 Predicted 02 May-04 May 110/110/110 90 Day Mean 01 May 091
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Apr 013/021 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 May 020/026 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 May-04 May 018/020-008/015-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 May to 04 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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