Viewing archive of Monday, 9 May 2005

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 May 09 2302 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 129 Issued at 2200Z on 09 May 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 758 (S09W23) produced five C-class flares during the past 24 hours. The largest of these was a C8 at 1103 UTC. The region has shown steady development during the past 24 hours, especially in the leader spots. New Region 760 (S06W14) has been identified as a distinct region to the east of 758. Region 759 (N14E60) is the largest group on the disk with area of 540 millionths but only managed to produce a B-class event. New Region 761 (N04E61) was assigned today and is a small, H-type group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate during the next three days (10-12 May). There is a fair chance for isolated M-class events from Region 758 or Region 759.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active for 08/2100-08/2400 UTC. Unsettled levels prevailed from 08/2400-09/0600 UTC, and conditions were quiet for the remainder of the period. Solar wind data show a steady decline in velocity, which was initially at about 730 km/s and decreased to about 550 km/s by the end of the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled with a chance for active periods at high latitudes for the next 24 hours (10 May). Conditions should be mostly unsettled for 11 May and quiet to unsettled for 12 May.
III. Event Probabilities 10 May to 12 May
Class M40%40%40%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 May 110
  Predicted   10 May-12 May  110/110/110
  90 Day Mean        09 May 091
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 08 May  038/064
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 09 May  010/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 10 May-12 May  010/020-010/015-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 May to 12 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%15%10%
Minor storm15%10%05%
Major-severe storm10%10%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm15%15%10%
Major-severe storm15%15%05%

All times in UTC

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