Viewing archive of Thursday, 19 May 2005

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 May 19 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 139 Issued at 2200Z on 19 May 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 759 (N12W75) has decayed into a single HHX alpha spot group as it nears the solar west limb. Region 763 (S16W35) underwent further decay this period and is now a simple BXO beta spot group. Region 765 (N09E65) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached very high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period. Isolated active periods are possible on 20 May due to a slight chance of the CME seen on 17 May becoming geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 20 May to 22 May
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 May 085
  Predicted   20 May-22 May  080/080/085
  90 Day Mean        19 May 092
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 18 May  006/013
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 19 May  005/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 20 May-22 May  008/015-005/010-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 May to 22 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%20%15%
Minor storm15%05%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%

All times in UTC

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