Viewing archive of Saturday, 11 June 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Jun 11 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 162 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jun 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity was very low.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low with a slight chance for M-class activity from Region 775
(N10W19) or 776 (S06W08).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods
possible on 12 and 13 June due to the effects of a faint partial
halo CME that occurred on 08 June. On 14 June, quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Jun to 14 Jun
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Jun 108 Predicted 12 Jun-14 Jun 105/105/100 90 Day Mean 11 Jun 094
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jun 002/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jun 003/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jun-14 Jun 008/010-008/010-006/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jun to 14 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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