Viewing archive of Saturday, 18 June 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Jun 18 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 169 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jun 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 780 (S08E52) produced
several low C-class flares. Occasional surging and numerous
brightness fluctuations were noted in this D-type group throughout
the period. A C1 flare was also observed in Region 779 (S18W32).
Region 779 is a moderate size E-type group in slow growth.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels. Both Regions 779 and 780 are capable of C-class
activity with a small chance for an M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed
remains elevated at near 500 km/s, but is in slow decline. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high
levels again today. The greater than 10 MeV protons at
geosynchronous orbit remain elevated, but are slowly returning to
background levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active with the chance for isolated minor
storm periods. Transient flow from the M4 flare and CME on 16 June
may create occasional storm periods on 19 June. Predominantly quiet
to unsettled levels are expected on 20 and 21 June.
III. Event Probabilities 19 Jun to 21 Jun
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Jun 090 Predicted 19 Jun-21 Jun 090/090/090 90 Day Mean 18 Jun 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jun 009/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jun 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jun-21 Jun 015/020-010/012-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jun to 21 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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