Viewing archive of Sunday, 26 June 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Jun 26 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 177 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jun 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. A C1 flare was
observed late in the period from a source area near N15 on the east
solar limb. The flare occurred at 26/2035Z. Several B-class flares
during the period were also attributed to this yet visible region in
H-alpha. Another full halo CME was observed today on SOHO/LASCO
imagery and it appears to be back-sided. The visible disk is
currently spotless. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels. An active source region that is just beyond
the northeast limb appears to have the capability of producing
isolated C-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels today. Solar
winds speeds have dropped to 500 km/sec and it appears the weak
coronal hole is waning. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated active
conditions are possible on 28 June due to the CME activity seen
yesterday that was related to disappearing solar filaments.
III. Event Probabilities 27 Jun to 29 Jun
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Jun 079 Predicted 27 Jun-29 Jun 080/085/085 90 Day Mean 26 Jun 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jun 009/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jun 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jun-29 Jun 010/010-012/012-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jun to 29 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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