Viewing archive of Tuesday, 5 July 2005

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Jul 05 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 186 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jul 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 788 (S06E32) produced a C1/Sf flare with an observed optical Y-shaped ribbon at 05/1526 UTC. This event had an associated partial halo CME which was first observed in the LASCO imagery at 05/1530 UTC. There were two other CME's observed by LASCO imagery during the last 24 hours. One was at 04/2130 UTC and the second was observed at 05/0330 UTC. Both of these appear to be backside events and not Earth directed. Region 786 (N12E23) has lost its delta magnetic configuration and has decreased in total sunspot count. Region 783 (S03W22) has grown and is now around 530 millionths of white light area coverage and has developed a magnetic beta-gamma configuration. A 26 degree long filament disappeared from S22W22 between 05/0205-1220 UTC.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low. Both Regions 783 and 786 are capable of producing and isolated M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominately quiet for 06-07 July. Quiet to unsettled conditions with isolated active periods are possible on 08 July due to the effects of the partial halo CME observed today.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Jul to 08 Jul
Class M45%45%45%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       05 Jul 127
  Predicted   06 Jul-08 Jul  130/125/120
  90 Day Mean        05 Jul 095
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jul  005/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 05 Jul  005/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 06 Jul-08 Jul  005/007-005/007-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jul to 08 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%15%
Minor storm05%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%20%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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