Viewing archive of Thursday, 21 July 2005

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Jul 21 2204 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 202 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jul 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. A full halo CME was observed in LASCO imagery at approximately 21/0354 UTC. This event was determined to be backsided. The solar disk remains spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. Mid and high lattitudes experienced minor storming from 0000 to 0600 UTC, with high lattitudes experiencing further minor storming from 0900 to 1200 UTC. The storm conditions are the result of a coronal hole high speed stream. Solar wind speed has been at about 550 km/s thoughout the day. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active on 22 July as the coronal hole high speed stream wanes. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 23 and 24 July.
III. Event Probabilities 22 Jul to 24 Jul
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       21 Jul 073
  Predicted   22 Jul-24 Jul  075/075/080
  90 Day Mean        21 Jul 097
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jul  014/020
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 21 Jul  020/030
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 22 Jul-24 Jul  010/015-008/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jul to 24 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%25%20%
Minor storm15%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%

All times in UTC

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