Viewing archive of Wednesday, 27 July 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Jul 27 2205 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 208 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jul 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
Solar activity was moderate. An M3.7 flare was
observed at 27/0502 UTC with an associated Type II and Type IV radio
sweep, and a 800 sfu Tenflare. This event was correlated with a
full halo CME observed by LASCO imagery from around the east limb.
This activity indicates the likely return of old Region 786
(N10,L=56) which is due to return on the visible solar disk 28 July.
The only visible numbered spot group on the disk at this time is
Region 791 (N13W06). It remains a beta magnetic classification and
has decreased slightly in both area and sunspot count.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. The returning region on the east limb may produce C-
and M-class events with a chance for an isolated X-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active conditions. In the past 24
hours the solar wind speed has increased from around 300 km/s to
above 420 km/s with the IMF Bz fluctuating southward to -12 nT.
This may be the onset of a high speed stream from a recurrent
coronal hole.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled conditions with isolated active
periods as the coronal hole high speed stream continues to be
geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 28 Jul to 30 Jul
| Class M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| PCAF | Yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Jul 091 Predicted 28 Jul-30 Jul 100/105/110 90 Day Mean 27 Jul 097
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jul 004/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Jul 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Jul-30 Jul 010/015-010/012-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jul to 30 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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