Viewing archive of Saturday, 6 August 2005

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Aug 06 2204 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 218 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Aug 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 794 (S12W10) produced a C1.1 flare at 05/2044 UTC. Region 792 (N10W41) has decayed into a Cso group. Region 795 (N12E00) has developed into a Cso Beta group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels. Minor storming was observed at high latitudes between 06/0000 - 1200 UTC. Solar wind data indicate the onset of a coronal hole high speed stream beginning about 05/2200. The solar wind speed remains elevated at approximately 550 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels with a chance for minor storm conditions for the next three days (07-09 August).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Aug to 09 Aug
Class M30%30%30%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       06 Aug 093
  Predicted   07 Aug-09 Aug  095/095/095
  90 Day Mean        06 Aug 096
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 05 Aug  006/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 06 Aug  022/030
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 07 Aug-09 Aug  012/015-010/012-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Aug to 09 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%20%20%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%25%30%
Minor storm15%10%15%
Major-severe storm10%05%10%

All times in UTC

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