Viewing archive of Tuesday, 9 August 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Aug 09 2205 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 221 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Aug 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z Solar activity has been very low. The only activity
observed during the last 24 hours were low level B-class flares.
Region 792 (N10W82) and 794 (S13W48) are both indicating a decay
phase. No new sunspot regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for an isolated C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Aug to 12 Aug
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Aug 083 Predicted 10 Aug-12 Aug 080/075/075 90 Day Mean 09 Aug 095
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Aug 006/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Aug 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Aug-12 Aug 010/010-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Aug to 12 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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