Viewing archive of Sunday, 14 August 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Aug 14 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 226 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Aug 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 797
(S13E16) continues to show steady growth in sunspot area although
flare production was limited to minor B-class activity. Region 798
(S05E54) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. The ACE
spacecraft indicated periods of southward Bz early in the period
which coincide with the observed active periods.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. Active conditions may
be possible late on 16 August due to the onset of a recurrent high
speed coronal hole stream. Isolated periods of minor to major
storming are possible on 17 August in association with the expected
maximum solar wind speeds from the coronal hole .
III. Event Probabilities 15 Aug to 17 Aug
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Aug 075 Predicted 15 Aug-17 Aug 075/075/080 90 Day Mean 14 Aug 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Aug 014/016 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Aug 008/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Aug-17 Aug 006/010-012/015-016/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Aug to 17 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 25% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 35% | 45% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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