Viewing archive of Wednesday, 31 August 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Aug 31 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 243 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Aug 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 803 (N11W13)
produced a long duration C2 x-ray event that occurred at 31/1151Z.
This event was followed by a full halo CME that was first observed
at 31/1100Z by LASCO imagery. Region 803 continues to show decay
and is down to 20 millionths of sunspot area. Region 806 (S17E23)
was limited to B-class flare activity and has shown slight decay in
sunspot coverage. The magnetic gamma structure remains intact
although it has weakened since yesterday. No new regions were
numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. The
elevated conditions ensued following a sustained southward Bz
(ranging between -10 and -20 nT) which began just after 31/1000Z.
This activity is believed to be in response to a corotating
interaction region. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels. A coronal hole may
keep conditions elevated throughout the period. Isolated major
storm conditions may be possible on 2 September due to the effects
of the full halo CME from the long duration C2 x-ray event that
occurred today.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Sep to 03 Sep
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Aug 084 Predicted 01 Sep-03 Sep 080/080/080 90 Day Mean 31 Aug 094
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Aug 003/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Aug 018/032 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Sep-03 Sep 015/020-025/030-020/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Sep to 03 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 45% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 15% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 20% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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