Viewing archive of Tuesday, 6 September 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Sep 06 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 249 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Sep 2005 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity levels increased to moderate this period. A long duration M1 flare and an associated CME was in progress on the southeast limb at the time of this issue. The likely source of this event is old active Region 798 (S09, L=217), which is expected to rotate into view on 07 Sep. Old Region 798 was responsible for significant flare activity during its last transit across the visible disk, and was the likely source of several farside CMEs during the past two weeks. Region 805 (S12W59), the only active region with sunspots on the visible disk, remained quiet this period.IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. Old Region 798 is rotating onto the visible disk
near S09, and is expected to significantly increase solar activity
levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again
today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels on 07 and 08 Sep.
Isolated active periods are possible on 09 Sep due to a high speed
coronal hole stream.
III. Event Probabilities 07 Sep to 09 Sep
| Class M | 40% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Sep 083 Predicted 07 Sep-09 Sep 090/100/105 90 Day Mean 06 Sep 091
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Sep 009/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Sep 007/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Sep-09 Sep 005/005-005/005-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Sep to 09 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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