Viewing archive of Saturday, 22 October 2005

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Oct 22 2204 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 295 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Oct 2005 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 815 (S14W68) continues to decay. LASCO imagery depicts a weak, full halo CME that appears to be from a back-sided source region, first seen at 22/0942Z. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The Geomagnetic field was at predominantly quiet levels, with a brief active period observed between 22/0000Z and 22/0300Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels throughout the period. The elevated conditions are due to a favorably positioned coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Oct to 25 Oct
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 Oct 075
  Predicted   23 Oct-25 Oct  075/075/075
  90 Day Mean        22 Oct 088
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 21 Oct  001/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 Oct  005/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 23 Oct-25 Oct  010/012-012/012-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Oct to 25 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%30%30%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm10%10%10%

All times in UTC

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