Viewing archive of Thursday, 3 November 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Nov 03 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 307 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Nov 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels again today.
Region 819 (S09W14) was the source for two B-class events including
a B9 x-ray flare that occurred at 03/0446Z. This region is down to
a single AXX alpha spot. Region 818 (S08W08) became magnetically
more complex although there are fewer sunspots visible than were
observed yesterday. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels. A
high speed coronal hole stream is responsible for the elevated
conditions. The solar wind speed has exceeded 600 km/sec throughout
most of the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels. The
geoeffective coronal hole could lead to periods of isolated minor
storm conditions on 03 and 04 November. A return to quiet to
unsettled levels is expected on 05 November.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Nov to 06 Nov
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Nov 077 Predicted 04 Nov-06 Nov 075/075/080 90 Day Mean 03 Nov 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Nov 005/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Nov 017/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Nov-06 Nov 020/020-015/020-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Nov to 06 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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