Viewing archive of Wednesday, 9 November 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Nov 09 2257 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 313 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Nov 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 820 (S16W81) produced a
C1 flare at 09/0301 UTC. A erupting solar filament was observed on
EIT imagery between 09/1948 UTC and 09/2148 UTC.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for an isolated C-flare from Region 820. Region
820 is due to rotate off the visible disk by 10 November.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on 10 November. Unsettled to
active conditions are possible on 11 November due to a coronal hole
high speed stream moving into geoeffective position. On 12 November,
mostly unsettled conditions are expected.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Nov to 12 Nov
| Class M | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Nov 078 Predicted 10 Nov-12 Nov 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 09 Nov 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Nov 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Nov 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Nov-12 Nov 008/010-010/020-008/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Nov to 12 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 10% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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