Viewing archive of Saturday, 12 November 2005

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Nov 12 2204 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 316 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Nov 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z

Solar activity has been low. A new region emerged on the disk today as a H-type sunspot group, and was numbered as Region 822 (S04E81). This region produced a long duration C2.5 flare at 12/1458 UTC, and an impulsive C9.5 event at 12/1933 UTC.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. Continued C-class flares are possible from Region 822.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Nov to 15 Nov
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       12 Nov 083
  Predicted   13 Nov-15 Nov  085/085/080
  90 Day Mean        12 Nov 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 11 Nov  003/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 12 Nov  008/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 13 Nov-15 Nov  008/008-005/005-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Nov to 15 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%05%05%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%10%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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