Viewing archive of Monday, 21 November 2005

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Nov 21 2204 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 325 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Nov 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z

Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 822 (S08W37) has decayed in both size and magnetic complexity. Regions 823 (S15W63) and 824 (S12E57) have been quiescent. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels. There is a chance for M-class activity from Region 822.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 22 Nov to 24 Nov
Class M30%30%30%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       21 Nov 095
  Predicted   22 Nov-24 Nov  095/095/090
  90 Day Mean        21 Nov 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 20 Nov  005/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 21 Nov  004/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 22 Nov-24 Nov  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Nov to 24 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%25%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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