Viewing archive of Tuesday, 20 December 2005

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Dec 20 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 354 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Dec 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Region 837 (S11W19) remains the largest group on the disk with about 210 millionths sunspot area. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. Solar wind speed increased to about 680 km/s after 0200Z with an accompanied increase in temperature. At time of issue, solar wind speed was still elevated at approximately 560 km/s. These solar wind signatures are consistent with a small coronal hole high-speed-stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled for the next 24 hours (21 December) with a chance for isolated active periods. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected for 22 and 23 December.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Dec to 23 Dec
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       20 Dec 088
  Predicted   21 Dec-23 Dec  090/085/085
  90 Day Mean        20 Dec 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 19 Dec  006/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 20 Dec  012/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 21 Dec-23 Dec  010/010-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Dec to 23 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%15%15%
Minor storm15%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%25%25%
Minor storm15%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%

All times in UTC

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