Viewing archive of Wednesday, 4 January 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Jan 04 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 004 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jan 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity continued very low. Both spot groups on
the visible disk, Region 841 (N13W76) and Region 843 (N13W51), were
stable and quiet.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue
very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to mildly unsettled. The slight increase later
in the period is due to the possible effects of a high speed solar
wind stream.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Jan to 07 Jan
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Jan 084 Predicted 05 Jan-07 Jan 085/085/085 90 Day Mean 04 Jan 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jan 003/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jan 003/002 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jan-07 Jan 005/003-005/005-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jan to 07 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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