Viewing archive of Wednesday, 18 January 2006

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Jan 18 2204 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 018 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jan 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. New Region 848 (S18E37) emerged quickly over the past 24 hours into a D-type group with minor magnetic mixing. No significant changes were noted in the remaining two sunspot regions.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels. There is a slight chance of a C-class flare from new Region 848.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with an isolated minor storm period between 18/0900 - 1200Z. A short period of southward IMF Bz accounted for the storm conditions. Solar speed was slightly enhanced, ranging between 500 - 550 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 19 Jan to 21 Jan
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 Jan 086
  Predicted   19 Jan-21 Jan  090/090/090
  90 Day Mean        18 Jan 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jan  010/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 18 Jan  010/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 19 Jan-21 Jan  010/010-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jan to 21 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%20%15%
Minor storm05%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%25%20%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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