Viewing archive of Thursday, 16 March 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Mar 16 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 075 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Mar 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity continues at very low levels. There are
just a couple of small, insignificant sunspot groups on the visible
disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity continues at very low
levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on 17 and 18 March. A high speed
coronal hole stream is expected to become geoeffective on 19 March,
and produce isolated active to minor storm conditions.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Mar to 19 Mar
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Mar 072 Predicted 17 Mar-19 Mar 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 16 Mar 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Mar 006/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Mar 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Mar-19 Mar 005/008-005/008-010/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Mar to 19 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 20% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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