Viewing archive of Thursday, 30 March 2006

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Mar 30 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 089 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Mar 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Today's activity consisted of several B-class flares. Most of these were from Region 865 (S13E32) including the largest, a B9/Sf at 1517Z. Region 865 is showing slow growth and is currently a 140 millionths D-type sunspot group. Region 866 (S08E56) managed to produce a B7 flare at 1709 UTC but was otherwise quiet and stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. There is a fair chance for an isolated C-class event from Region 865 sometime during the next three days (31 Mar - 2 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for the next two days (31 Mar - 1 Apr) and is expected to be generally unsettled by the third day (2 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 31 Mar to 02 Apr
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       30 Mar 084
  Predicted   31 Mar-02 Apr  085/085/085
  90 Day Mean        30 Mar 079
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 29 Mar  004/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 30 Mar  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 31 Mar-02 Apr  005/005-005/005-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Mar to 02 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%20%
Minor storm10%10%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%25%
Minor storm10%10%20%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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