Viewing archive of Friday, 14 April 2006

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Apr 14 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 104 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Apr 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity remained very low. No significant flares occurred during the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to major storm levels. An interval of major to severe storm conditions was observed at the Boulder magnetometer between 14/0600Z and 1200Z. The interplanetary magnetic field strengthened, and the Z-component rotated smoothly from 13/1500Z through 14/1200Z from 17 nT through a maximum negative value of -15 nT. Solar wind speeds ranged from approximately 480 km/s to 570 km/s. The unusual solar wind conditions appear to be consistent with a corotating interaction region that may have been complicated by the presence of transient flow. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active. Isolated periods of minor to major storm conditions are possible on 15-16 April due to a coronal hole high speed stream. Predominantly unsettled conditions will return on 17 April.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Apr to 17 Apr
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 Apr 079
  Predicted   15 Apr-17 Apr  080/080/080
  90 Day Mean        14 Apr 080
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 Apr  009/013
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 Apr  032/040
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 15 Apr-17 Apr  025/030-020/025-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Apr to 17 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%30%25%
Minor storm25%20%15%
Major-severe storm10%10%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%35%30%
Minor storm25%25%20%
Major-severe storm15%10%10%

All times in UTC

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