Viewing archive of Saturday, 22 April 2006

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Apr 22 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 112 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Apr 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

Solar activity was low. A C2 x-ray flare which reached maximum at 1639UTC was the largest event of the day. B-class flares were more numerous and all activity was seen to be centered on active regions just rotating onto the disk in the southern hemisphere. The sole spot group, Region 874 (S02W39), was quiet as it continued to decay.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. Expect isolated C-class flares during the next three days.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was moderately disturbed early in the period, as conditions ranged from active to brief major storming at high latitudes. This activity was due to strong Alfven waves in the solar wind that caused periods of southward IMF to reach -15 nT at times. The solar wind returned to more normal conditions during the last 12 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled during the interval. Brief active conditions may occur in the near term as the solar wind speed, though decreasing, is still above 500 km/s.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Apr to 25 Apr
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 Apr 082
  Predicted   23 Apr-25 Apr  085/085/085
  90 Day Mean        22 Apr 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 21 Apr  006/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 Apr  015/020
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 23 Apr-25 Apr  010/010-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Apr to 25 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%20%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active50%30%30%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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