Viewing archive of Saturday, 6 May 2006

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 May 06 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 126 Issued at 2200Z on 06 May 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z

Solar activity remained at very low levels. Activity was limited to minor B-class flares. Region 881 (S12E68) has fully rotated onto the visible disk and is a simply structured beta complex. Region 882 (S12W19) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at very to low levels. There is a chance that Regions 881 and 882 could produce an isolated C-class flare,
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. The elevated conditions are due a favorably positioned recurrent coronal hole which became geoeffective near 06/1530Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels. Isolated minor storm conditions are possible on 07 and 08 May due to coronal hole high speed stream effects. A return to quiet to unsettled condition are expected on 09 May as the coronal hole wanes.
III. Event Probabilities 07 May to 09 May
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       06 May 087
  Predicted   07 May-09 May  085/085/080
  90 Day Mean        06 May 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 05 May  008/013
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 06 May  016/025
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 07 May-09 May  020/030-012/020-005/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 May to 09 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%25%15%
Minor storm20%15%01%
Major-severe storm10%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active45%40%25%
Minor storm30%20%15%
Major-severe storm15%10%05%

All times in UTC

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