Viewing archive of Thursday, 18 May 2006

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 May 18 2204 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 138 Issued at 2200Z on 18 May 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

Solar activity was very low.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. Solar wind speed at ACE showed an increase beginning around 18/0500 UTC as a coronal hole high speed stream moved into geoeffective position. Solar wind speed increased to around 600 km/s. An isolated minor storm period occurred between 18/1500 and 18/1800 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active with minor storm periods possible on 19 May due to continued coronal hole activity. On 20 and 21 May, mostly quiet to unsettled conditions are expected.
III. Event Probabilities 19 May to 21 May
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 May 073
  Predicted   19 May-21 May  075/075/075
  90 Day Mean        18 May 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 17 May  004/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 18 May  012/014
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 19 May-21 May  010/020-008/010-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 May to 21 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%20%15%
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%25%20%
Minor storm20%10%10%
Major-severe storm10%01%01%

All times in UTC

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