Viewing archive of Sunday, 13 August 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Aug 13 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 225 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Aug 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Today's activity consisted
of a few B-class flares from Region 904 (S13E38). This region
continues to be the only spotted group on the disk. The large leader
spot showed simplification and consolidation of the umbra regions;
the large trailer spot showed slow emergence of new magnetic flux.
The region is predominantly bipolar but has some small areas of
mixed polarity, making the group a beta-gamma magnetic class.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low, with just a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare
from Region 904.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
reached high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be generally quiet for the next three days (14-16
August).
III. Event Probabilities 14 Aug to 16 Aug
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Aug 086 Predicted 14 Aug-16 Aug 085/085/085 90 Day Mean 13 Aug 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Aug 004/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Aug 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Aug-16 Aug 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Aug to 16 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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