Viewing archive of Saturday, 19 August 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Aug 19 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 231 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Aug 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
Solar activity was low. Region 903, a plage region on
the west limb, produced a C3.8 flare at 19/1124Z. Region 904
(S14W54) has shown little activity, producing only B-class flares.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low, with a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare from
Region 904.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to major storm levels. At
approximately 19/1100Z a small shock was observed at ACE. The total
IMF strength increased to about 20 nT while the Bz component turned
southward and reached -15 nT. The solar wind speed also increased
from about 400 km/s to about 450 km/s. This resulted in two periods
of major storm levels at high latitudes from 1200 - 1800Z. At time
of issue Bz remained southward at approximately -10 nT and solar
wind speed had decreased to about 400 km/s. Today's shock arrival
is likely due to the full halo CME observed on 16 August.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with a chance for isolated minor
storm periods on 20 August due to an expected coronal hole high
speed stream. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 21 - 22
August.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Aug to 22 Aug
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Aug 089 Predicted 20 Aug-22 Aug 090/090/090 90 Day Mean 19 Aug 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Aug 009/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Aug 020/035 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Aug-22 Aug 015/025-008/010-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Aug to 22 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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