Viewing archive of Tuesday, 22 August 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Aug 22 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 234 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Aug 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity was very low. A long duration B-class
flare was observed at 22/1324Z from Region 904 on the west limb. A
faint and slow moving CME was first observed on the east limb by
LASCO at 22/0636Z. As there were no front-sided events near in time
to the CME, it is likely backsided and not expected to be
geoeffective.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been unsettled to active. Elevated solar
wind speed due to a geoeffective coronal hole combined with an
extended period of southward Bz produced active conditions during
most of the day at mid and high latitudes. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next two days (23 - 24
August). Expect predominantly quiet conditions on 25 August.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Aug to 25 Aug
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Aug 081 Predicted 23 Aug-25 Aug 080/080/080 90 Day Mean 22 Aug 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Aug 010/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Aug 017/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Aug-25 Aug 010/010-008/012-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Aug to 25 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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