Viewing archive of Saturday, 2 September 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Sep 02 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 245 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Sep 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No new regions were
numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for an isolated C-flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. An isolated active period
was observed at middle latitudes between 01/2100 to 2400 UTC due to
a prolonged period of southward Bz.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with isolated minor storm periods
possible on 03 - 04 September due to a coronal hole high speed
stream moving into geoeffective position. On 05 September,
conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Sep to 05 Sep
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Sep 076 Predicted 03 Sep-05 Sep 075/075/080 90 Day Mean 02 Sep 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Sep 008/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Sep 006/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Sep-05 Sep 012/020-010/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Sep to 05 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 05% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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