Viewing archive of Sunday, 10 September 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Sep 10 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 253 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Sep 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 909 (S11W30)
produced a long duration B6 event at 10/0723 UTC.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a slight chance for an isolated C-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for 12-13 September due to
possible effects from a coronal hole high speed stream. Quiet
conditions are expected for 14 September.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Sep to 13 Sep
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Sep 087 Predicted 11 Sep-13 Sep 085/085/085 90 Day Mean 10 Sep 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Sep 001/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Sep 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Sep-13 Sep 008/008-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Sep to 13 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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