Viewing archive of Sunday, 17 September 2006

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Sep 17 2204 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 260 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Sep 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z

Solar activity was very low.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active, with a minor storm period observed by Boulder Magnetometer from 0900 - 1200Z. Solar wind speed increased to about 500 km/s during the reporting period due to the geoeffective coronal hole.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance for active periods on 18 September due to continuing effects from the coronal hole high speed stream. Expect quiet to unsettled conditions on 19 - 20 September.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Sep to 20 Sep
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       17 Sep 078
  Predicted   18 Sep-20 Sep  075/075/075
  90 Day Mean        17 Sep 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 16 Sep  001/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 17 Sep  010/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 18 Sep-20 Sep  008/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Sep to 20 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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