Viewing archive of Wednesday, 20 September 2006

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Sep 20 2204 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 263 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Sep 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Region 910 (S09E24) contains the lone sunspot on the visible disk today. No activity of note was observed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet with isolated unsettled conditions. Solar wind speed has declined to below 380 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on 21 and 22 September. A recurrent coronal hole high speed stream is expected to rotate into geoeffective position on 23 September and produce occasional active to minor storm periods.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Sep to 23 Sep
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       20 Sep 071
  Predicted   21 Sep-23 Sep  070/070/070
  90 Day Mean        20 Sep 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 19 Sep  008/012
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 20 Sep  005/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 21 Sep-23 Sep  005/005-005/005-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Sep to 23 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%40%
Minor storm01%01%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%50%
Minor storm01%01%20%
Major-severe storm01%01%10%

All times in UTC

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