Viewing archive of Saturday, 21 October 2006

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Oct 21 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 294 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Oct 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z

Solar activity has been very low. Region 917 (S05W33), now spot class Cso with an expanded area, has been exhibiting enhanced x-ray flux for the past eight hours and continues to do so at time of issue.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has ranged from quiet to active. Solar wind speed is elevated and currently 625 km/s due to a coronal hole high speed stream. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux briefly reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active on 22 October due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. Expect quiet to unsettled conditions for 23 and 24 October.
III. Event Probabilities 22 Oct to 24 Oct
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       21 Oct 075
  Predicted   22 Oct-24 Oct  075/075/075
  90 Day Mean        21 Oct 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 20 Oct  009/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 21 Oct  010/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 22 Oct-24 Oct  010/015-005/005-004/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Oct to 24 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%20%20%
Minor storm15%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%25%25%
Minor storm20%15%15%
Major-severe storm10%05%05%

All times in UTC

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