Viewing archive of Tuesday, 24 October 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Oct 24 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 297 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Oct 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels today. Both
spotted regions 917 (S05W73) and 918 (S04W85) have undergone slow
decay during the period. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. Solar wind
speed dropped down to approximately 400 km/s as the coronal hole
moves out of geoeffective position. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Oct to 27 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Oct 075 Predicted 25 Oct-27 Oct 075/070/070 90 Day Mean 24 Oct 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Oct 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Oct 002/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Oct-27 Oct 003/005-003/005-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Oct to 27 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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