Viewing archive of Friday, 3 November 2006

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Nov 03 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 307 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Nov 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Regions 921 (S06E02) and 922 (S13E18) were both quiet and stable. Region 921 still retains a modest degree of magnetic complexity. Some prominence activity occurred near S40E90.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to persist at quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Nov to 06 Nov
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       03 Nov 087
  Predicted   04 Nov-06 Nov  090/090/090
  90 Day Mean        03 Nov 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 02 Nov  006/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 03 Nov  007/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 04 Nov-06 Nov  005/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Nov to 06 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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