Viewing archive of Sunday, 5 November 2006

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Nov 05 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 309 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Nov 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 921 (S08W24) produced two C-class flares. The largest of these was a C3/Sf flare at 05/1227Z. A Type II radio sweep was reported at 05/1730Z. Solar observatories reported estimated shock speeds ranging from 1089 to 1541 km/sec. Although no significant flare activity was observed at this time, H-alpha imagery indicates a DSF may have occurred.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low. There remains a chance of an isolated C-class flare from Region 921.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly quiet.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Nov to 08 Nov
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       05 Nov 085
  Predicted   06 Nov-08 Nov  085/085/085
  90 Day Mean        05 Nov 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 04 Nov  004/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 05 Nov  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 06 Nov-08 Nov  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Nov to 08 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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