Viewing archive of Wednesday, 6 December 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Dec 06 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 340 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Dec 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z Solar activity was high. Region 930 (S05E60) produced
an M6/SF flare at 06/0823Z and an X6/3B flare at 06/1847Z. The M6
flare had an associated Type IV radio sweep and a Tenflare. The X6
flare had an associated Type IV radio sweep, a Tenflare, and a Type
II radio sweep (estimated shock speed of 827 km/s). A CME was
probably associated with this event, but LASCO imagery is
unavailable for confirmation. Region 930 is now classified as a Dkc
group with an area of 490 millionths. It is magnetically complex,
with an east-west inversion line and a Beta-Gamma-Delta
configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be high.
Region 930 is expected to produce M-class flares and there is a
good chance for further X-class activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels.
Solar wind speed has increased to approximately 600 km/s, indicating
the onset of a coronal hole high speed stream. The greater than 10
MeV proton flux reached the event threshold of 10 pfu at 06/1555Z,
with a maximum observed flux so far of 24 at 2100Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active on 07 - 08 December with a chance
for periods of minor or major storm conditions due to the recurrent
coronal hole high speed stream. Quiet to unsettled conditions are
expected on 09 December. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is
expected to continue for at least another 24 hours.
III. Event Probabilities 07 Dec to 09 Dec
| Class M | 85% | 85% | 85% |
| Class X | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Proton | 95% | 70% | 50% |
| PCAF | red | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Dec 103 Predicted 07 Dec-09 Dec 105/105/105 90 Day Mean 06 Dec 080
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Dec 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Dec 018/025 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Dec-09 Dec 020/025-015/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Dec to 09 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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