Viewing archive of Wednesday, 20 December 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Dec 20 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 354 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Dec 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No new regions were
numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Active periods were due to
a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. Solar wind speed at ACE
has increased from approximately 600 km/s to 740 km/s. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels. Isolated major
storm periods are possible at higher latitudes on 21 December. By 23
December, conditions are expected to decrease to mostly quiet to
unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Dec to 23 Dec
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Dec 072 Predicted 21 Dec-23 Dec 075/075/080 90 Day Mean 20 Dec 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Dec 009/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Dec 012/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Dec-23 Dec 015/030-012/020-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Dec to 23 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 10% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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