Viewing archive of Thursday, 4 January 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Jan 04 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 004 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jan 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No significant activity
has been observed over the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low for the next three days (05 - 07 January).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. Solar wind
speed remains elevated at approximately 640 km/s due to the coronal
hole high speed stream. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days (05 - 07
January). Active periods are possible on 07 January due to a
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Jan to 07 Jan
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Jan 089 Predicted 05 Jan-07 Jan 090/090/090 90 Day Mean 04 Jan 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jan 011/020 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jan 012/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jan-07 Jan 010/010-008/008-008/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jan to 07 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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