Viewing archive of Friday, 9 February 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Feb 09 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 040 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Feb 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z Solar activity increased to low levels. Old Region 940
(S05,L=043) produced a C1 x-ray flare at 08/2246Z. LASCO imagery
observed a CME shortly after the event which appeared to have a
western trajectory and is most likely not Earth directed. Region
941 (S07W75) was stable and underwent little change during the
period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on 10 February. Late on 11
February, a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream is expected to
become geoeffective with periods of active to minor storm levels
possible. Predominantly unsettled to active conditions are expected
on 12 February due to the coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Feb to 12 Feb
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Feb 077 Predicted 10 Feb-12 Feb 077/076/074 90 Day Mean 09 Feb 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Feb 006/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Feb 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Feb-12 Feb 005/005-012/015-012/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Feb to 12 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 30% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 10% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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