Viewing archive of Sunday, 11 February 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Feb 11 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 042 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Feb 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity was very low. There are no regions with
spots on the visible disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with a possibility for isolated
periods of minor storming from 12 - 14 February. A coronal hole
high speed stream is anticipated to rotate into a geoeffective
position for that period.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Feb to 14 Feb
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Feb 075 Predicted 12 Feb-14 Feb 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 11 Feb 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Feb 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Feb 002/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Feb-14 Feb 010/015-015/020-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Feb to 14 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 15% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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