Viewing archive of Monday, 7 May 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 May 07 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 127 Issued at 2200Z on 07 May 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z Solar activity has been very low.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to unsettled with one period
of minor storming. Real-time solar wind data are consistent with
the onset of a high speed solar wind stream. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again
today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on 08 May. Isolated active
periods are possible due to a geoeffective recurrent coronal hole
high speed stream. The geomagnetic field is expected to be
predominately quiet 09 - 10 May.
III. Event Probabilities 08 May to 10 May
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 May 076 Predicted 08 May-10 May 075/070/070 90 Day Mean 07 May 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 May 000/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 May 012/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 May-10 May 008/012-006/008-004/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 May to 10 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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