Viewing archive of Monday, 4 June 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Jun 04 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 155 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jun 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity was at high levels. Region 960 (S08E38)
produced an M8.9/3b flare at 04/0513 UTC with an associated 130 sfu
Tenflare. There is some decay in area of the central and trailing
spots of this region, however it remains a complex beta gamma delta
magnetic classification.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
at moderate to high levels with a chance for an X-flare from Region
960.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with an isolated active
period observed at the Boulder magnetometer between 04/1500 UTC and
04/1800 UTC. Solar wind speed at ACE is currently elevated around
500 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Based on the potential for
significant flare activity from Region 960, there is a slight chance
for a greater than 10 MeV proton event.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Jun to 07 Jun
| Class M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Class X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Jun 086 Predicted 05 Jun-07 Jun 085/085/085 90 Day Mean 04 Jun 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jun 007/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jun 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jun-07 Jun 008/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jun to 07 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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