Viewing archive of Wednesday, 13 June 2007

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Jun 13 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 164 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jun 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Region 960 (S05W85) produced A B4 flare at 13/1347Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low. There is a slight chance of a C-class flare from Region 960.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. An apparent solar sector boundary crossing occurred at 13/1800Z. Solar wind speed increased from approximately 310 km/s to 420 km/s at forecast issue time.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to active levels on 14-15 June, with isolated minor storm periods possible at high latitudes, due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 16 June.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Jun to 16 Jun
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 Jun 071
  Predicted   14 Jun-16 Jun  070/070/070
  90 Day Mean        13 Jun 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jun  003/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 13 Jun  004/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 14 Jun-16 Jun  010/015-010/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jun to 16 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%25%20%
Minor storm15%15%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%25%
Minor storm20%20%15%
Major-severe storm10%05%01%

All times in UTC

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